Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 18 2020 | 6602 | 35585 | 201 | 46 | 1566 | 2286 |
| November 19 2020 | 6778 | 35890 | 203 | 48 | 1647 | 2222 |
| November 20 2020 | 6930 | 36181 | 207 | 50 | 1707 | 2214 |
| November 21 2020 | 7075 | 36582 | 211 | 54 | 1783 | 2178 |
| November 22 2020 | 7182 | 36736 | 215 | 54 | 1707 | 2146 |
| November 23 2020 | 7250 | 36863 | 218 | 54 | 1708 | 2119 |
| November 24 2020 | 7336 | 37074 | 231 | 56 | 1710 | 2113 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 8.0 | 4.4% | 76 | 0.66% | 95 | 0.83% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 20.9 | 12.9% | 220 | 1.62% | 287 | 2.11% |
| 20-29 | 21 | 38.4 | 24.2% | 414 | 1.98% | 527 | 2.52% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 23.9 | 17% | 291 | 2.14% | 337 | 2.48% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 18.9 | 12.9% | 220 | 2.1% | 264 | 2.52% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 18.3 | 11.7% | 200 | 1.59% | 244 | 1.94% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 14.0 | 9.6% | 165 | 1.43% | 203 | 1.76% |
| 70+ | 11 | 12.7 | 7.3% | 124 | 1.18% | 156 | 1.49% |
| All ages | 86 | 155.0 | 100% | 1710 | 1.63% | 2113 | 2.02% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 18 2020 | 3797 | 21827 | 107 | 42 | 1044 | 1537 |
| November 19 2020 | 3894 | 21946 | 109 | 43 | 1094 | 1460 |
| November 20 2020 | 3969 | 22178 | 114 | 44 | 985 | 1365 |
| November 21 2020 | 4175 | 22331 | 115 | 45 | 1089 | 1462 |
| November 22 2020 | 4255 | 22428 | 117 | 45 | 1032 | 1502 |
| November 23 2020 | 4304 | 22492 | 117 | 45 | 946 | 1504 |
| November 24 2020 | 4376 | 22581 | 120 | 47 | 938 | 1392 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 2.7 | 3% | 28 | 0.36% | 39 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 6.3 | 6.8% | 64 | 0.76% | 103 | 1.23% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 16.4 | 16.1% | 151 | 2.12% | 219 | 3.08% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 18.0 | 17.5% | 164 | 1.95% | 245 | 2.91% |
| 40-49 | 17 | 17.3 | 16.6% | 156 | 2.01% | 247 | 3.18% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 16.6 | 17.2% | 161 | 1.66% | 233 | 2.4% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 10.9 | 12.9% | 121 | 1.44% | 170 | 2.02% |
| 70+ | 9 | 9.4 | 9.9% | 93 | 1.31% | 136 | 1.91% |
| All ages | 72 | 97.6 | 100% | 938 | 1.45% | 1392 | 2.15% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 18 2020 | 2882 | 14400 | 109 | 35 | 1021 | 1388 |
| November 19 2020 | 3023 | 14489 | 113 | 35 | 1104 | 1437 |
| November 20 2020 | 3138 | 14614 | 114 | 35 | 1147 | 1453 |
| November 21 2020 | 3212 | 14737 | 116 | 36 | 1159 | 1415 |
| November 22 2020 | 3250 | 14829 | 117 | 37 | 1122 | 1389 |
| November 23 2020 | 3307 | 14847 | 117 | 37 | 1123 | 1388 |
| November 24 2020 | 3345 | 14879 | 122 | 38 | 948 | 1354 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.6 | 4% | 38 | 0.7% | 54 | 0.99% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 7.6 | 9.3% | 88 | 1.62% | 122 | 2.25% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 9.9 | 13.4% | 127 | 2.81% | 193 | 4.27% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 14.4 | 15.9% | 151 | 2.78% | 220 | 4.05% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 13.4 | 15.5% | 147 | 2.95% | 190 | 3.82% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 13.9 | 15.8% | 150 | 2.21% | 221 | 3.26% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 10.9 | 13.4% | 127 | 2.01% | 192 | 3.03% |
| 70+ | 5 | 10.9 | 12.7% | 120 | 1.89% | 162 | 2.56% |
| All ages | 38 | 84.4 | 100% | 948 | 2.1% | 1354 | 2.99% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 18 2020 | 6845 | 38261 | 128 | 31 | 1376 | 1935 |
| November 19 2020 | 6919 | 38594 | 132 | 32 | 1384 | 1884 |
| November 20 2020 | 7081 | 38863 | 137 | 32 | 1455 | 1907 |
| November 21 2020 | 7287 | 39084 | 138 | 32 | 1454 | 1896 |
| November 22 2020 | 7340 | 39279 | 139 | 32 | 1322 | 1871 |
| November 23 2020 | 7401 | 39430 | 142 | 32 | 1217 | 1866 |
| November 24 2020 | 7500 | 39690 | 151 | 33 | 1274 | 1874 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.0 | 3.1% | 40 | 0.34% | 56 | 0.47% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 10.3 | 8.8% | 112 | 0.68% | 182 | 1.1% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 25.3 | 20.4% | 260 | 1.22% | 389 | 1.83% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 19.7 | 17.8% | 227 | 1.67% | 316 | 2.32% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 15.1 | 12.3% | 157 | 1.15% | 239 | 1.76% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 17.3 | 14.8% | 189 | 1.33% | 293 | 2.07% |
| 60-69 | 17 | 15.7 | 12.1% | 154 | 1.09% | 214 | 1.51% |
| 70+ | 15 | 15.3 | 10.6% | 135 | 1.04% | 185 | 1.42% |
| All ages | 99 | 122.7 | 100% | 1274 | 1.08% | 1874 | 1.59% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 18 2020 | 23474 | 262791 | 706 | 68 | 4951 | 6511 |
| November 19 2020 | 23869 | 263742 | 714 | 69 | 5072 | 6574 |
| November 20 2020 | 24317 | 265581 | 715 | 72 | 4823 | 6510 |
| November 21 2020 | 24654 | 266695 | 726 | 75 | 4698 | 6380 |
| November 22 2020 | 24866 | 268134 | 729 | 75 | 4276 | 6343 |
| November 23 2020 | 25006 | 269472 | 733 | 75 | 3951 | 6209 |
| November 24 2020 | 25755 | 270881 | 742 | 77 | 4407 | 6261 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 39 | 21.1 | 5.2% | 229 | 0.38% | 301 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 127 | 73.9 | 17.8% | 784 | 1.1% | 1110 | 1.56% |
| 20-29 | 145 | 90.6 | 22.9% | 1010 | 0.97% | 1465 | 1.41% |
| 30-39 | 123 | 69.4 | 16.7% | 735 | 0.96% | 1004 | 1.31% |
| 40-49 | 121 | 54.9 | 13.8% | 606 | 0.92% | 858 | 1.31% |
| 50-59 | 81 | 42.1 | 10.8% | 474 | 0.72% | 688 | 1.05% |
| 60-69 | 75 | 30.1 | 7.6% | 337 | 0.62% | 464 | 0.85% |
| 70+ | 38 | 21.4 | 5.3% | 232 | 0.47% | 371 | 0.75% |
| All ages | 749 | 403.6 | 100% | 4407 | 0.81% | 6261 | 1.15% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 18 2020 | 331837 | 2036941 | 15100 | 2793 | 64427 | 87835 |
| November 19 2020 | 338472 | 2049526 | 15336 | 2876 | 66702 | 88548 |
| November 20 2020 | 344945 | 2062191 | 15526 | 2954 | 66102 | 88880 |
| November 21 2020 | 351169 | 2073860 | 15734 | 3005 | 65278 | 88039 |
| November 22 2020 | 354676 | 2085252 | 15823 | 3005 | 61288 | 87266 |
| November 23 2020 | 357771 | 2094448 | 15930 | 3011 | 56606 | 86001 |
| November 24 2020 | 363973 | 2104756 | 16209 | 3115 | 57662 | 85130 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 310 | 248.7 | 4.3% | 2468 | 0.39% | 3528 | 0.55% |
| 10-19 | 725 | 633.1 | 11.2% | 6433 | 0.85% | 9651 | 1.28% |
| 20-29 | 983 | 949.6 | 16.8% | 9682 | 1.28% | 14426 | 1.91% |
| 30-39 | 898 | 906.7 | 15.8% | 9116 | 1.2% | 13316 | 1.76% |
| 40-49 | 894 | 861.9 | 14.7% | 8462 | 1.21% | 12500 | 1.79% |
| 50-59 | 870 | 897.1 | 15.6% | 8994 | 1.1% | 13326 | 1.63% |
| 60-69 | 771 | 648.6 | 11.5% | 6629 | 0.88% | 9723 | 1.28% |
| 70+ | 751 | 586.4 | 10.2% | 5878 | 0.92% | 8660 | 1.35% |
| All ages | 6202 | 5732.1 | 100% | 57662 | 0.99% | 85130 | 1.46% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 201.9 | 211 | 251.8 | 155 | 118 | 36.9% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 215.3 | 97.6 | 107.7 | 42.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 299.3 | 84.4 | 71.3 | 47.9% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 158.5 | 110 | 182.8 | 122.7 | 144.3 | 30.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 114.5 | 156.2 | 141 | 403.6 | 464 | 22.7% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 146.2 | 127.5 | 190.6 | 5732.1 | 6442.9 | 33.4% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 5.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.49 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-15 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2972"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges